DLyons May 14, 2011:

Statistical math The analogy comes from Gerd Gigerenzer’s discussion of the "base rate fallacy" which is essentially about Bayes Theorem.

See e.g.
http://scip.cms-plus.com/files/Resources/Lee-Bayesian-Reason...

Linda Grabner May 14, 2011:

rustles & rabbits The direct referent of the analogy is that whenever you hear a sound in the bushes, 0.01% you'll think it's a rabbit but it's not (false positive). (For the rest of the analogy, I'll admit I'm not following their math too well.) In other words, don't jump to conclusions, don't let yourself be led astray by preconceived expectations, because a good part of the time you will be wrong. Hope this helps!

Jenni Lukac (X) May 13, 2011:

From the information you have just given I would assume that the author is talking about stimuli - how perception of a stimulus can sometimes be misleading or false, but it is hard to tell without reading more. Creo que quiere decir que el "rustle" puede disparar una sensación de algo concreto o ser un estímulo/percepción de un estímulo engañoso o falso.

Medelyn (asker) May 13, 2011:

El texto es acerca de la congnición humana y su desarrollo (Psicología). Creo que "rustle in the bushes" es una analogía o dicho idiomático. Por lo tanto, necesito saber a qué se refiere bajo este contexto. Muchísimas gracias por su ayuda y espero que esta información ayude para esclarecer mi consulta.

Armorel Young May 13, 2011:

Clarification, please Can you be a bit more specific about what it is that is puzzling you?