Al investigar más de cerca, parece que se trata del término "the pencil", muy conocido entre los vendedores de coches (que, por cierto, da un interesante vista a las entrañas del proceso de negociación).

First pencil: This is the opening offer from the sales manager, usually written onto the four-square worksheet, so-called because it is highly negotiable, i.e. written in pencil, not ink. "I show my customer the first pencil and it's so high he nearly dies. I scrape him off the ceiling and make a deal."
http://www.edmunds.com/car-buying/car-lot-lingo-talk-the-tal...

The “pencil” is typically written by the sales manager and it is most effective when it is attempted several times. The first attempt—or the “first pencil”—is a response to the customer’s initial offer... when the “first pencil” arrives from the sales manager, it most likely will contain an inflated payment that is not even in line with the reality of simple math.
This first attempt or “first pencil” is meant to create a reaction and provoke negotiation. Usually, the dealer will justify these inflated numbers by explaining that the payments are “normal” for a vehicle of this price. The pencil is often hand written. This is because the dealer wants to keep all the elements of payment and price as vague as possible. Look at it this way: if they provided the customer with a “pencil” printed from a payment calculator, they would not have any place to hide their potential “Back-End” profit.
http://www.hoopdi.com/index.php/car-dealer-secrets/car-price...

Entonces, el "lápiz" es un especie de contraoferta de engaño, muy elevado (originalmente escrita en lápiz, que denota su informalidad) del gerente, después de que el vendedor haya sacado una oferta de inicio de parte del cliente. Esto provoca que el cliente se moleste, y en su enojo, presenta otra oferta (más alta, en donde quizá su razón esté nublado a raíz de su molestia), que a su vez suscita otra contraoferta(s) del gerente, y así sucesivamente hasta que se concreta la venta.

Bastante turbio, diría yo, pero esta forma de negociar parece ser tan común que ya recibe un nombre específico (y hasta un verbo), que sería "dual pencil" (o sea, al menos dos contraofertas).