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Sample translations submitted: 2
Romanian to English: LITTLE BRITAIN – TV SERIES SCRIPT General field: Other Detailed field: Cinema, Film, TV, Drama
Source text - Romanian 10.03.35 MAN
Darling, darling…
Music Out
A lady walks down the stairs and talks to the man 10.03.38 WIFE
Yes?
10.03.38 MAN
Have you seen my wallet?
10.03.41 WIFE
It’s by the phone.
10.03.42 MAN
Oh.
10.03.44 WIFE
So aren’t you going to tell me how I look?
10.03.45 MAN
Beautiful. Oh that will be the babysitter, I’ll get it.
Man walks to the door and opens up the door and greets Vicky 10.03.54 MAN
Hello, you must be Victoria.
MCU - Vicky stands in the doorway smoking a cigarette and talks to the man 10.03.56 VICKY POLLARD
No but, yeah but, no but, yeah but no cause I could be like the babysitter [UNINTELLIGLBLE]
Man shows Vicky into the living room 10.04.01 MAN
Come in, you’re a little late.
Vicky standing in the living talking to the man 10.04.05 VICKY POLLARD
Don’t go giving me evils, what happened was I was going to be here about half a hour ago but I couldn’t because we was all like at MacDonalds, because Jade McGuire really fancies this bloke who works there called Lee Cherry who used to go to our school and he’s done like the best out of everyone in his year cause he’s got two stars on his name badge, one for slicing gherkins and the other for mopping up piss. Anyway, Shenita told Lee that Jade really fancies him and then Jade took Lee round the back of the deep fat fryer and showed him her egg McMuffin.
Wife walks into the living room and greets Vicky 10.04.28 WIFE
Hello there, I’m Jennifer.
Vicky starts looking through the alcohol 10.04.31 VICKY POLLARD
Got any Pernod?
Man and wife stand talking to Vicky 10.04.34 WIFE
Archie’s already in bed, he should be fine. If he wakes up don’t let him watch cartoons.
10.04.40 MAN
Yes, he’ll settle better if you read him a book.
Vicky looks confused 10.04.43 VICKY POLLARD
A what?
Wife talking to Vicky 10.04.44 WIFE
I hope you don’t mind me asking but have you looked after children much before?
Vicky standing talking to man and wife 10.04.56 VICKY POLLARD
Oh my god I so can’t believe you just said that, shut up, I’m like well good with kids because once me and Carrie Delaney was up the Broadmead Centre and she had one of them babies where you don’t even know you’re pregnant till it comes out, she had it in the middle of Top Shop, it was well graphic. And I had to hold it while she went and brought a Day Glow hair scrunchie. Oh yeah and I’ve actually like shot out six kids myself so does that count, stupid bitch?
Vicky sitting on the sofa 10.05.10 WIFE
So who’s looking after them tonight?
10.05.13 VICKY POLLARD
I dunno.
10.05.16 MAN
Taxi’s here.
Man and wife talking to Vicky 10.05.17 WIFE
You will be OK?
Vicky sits drinking vodka and smoking
The man and his wife leave 10.05.20 VICKY POLLARD
Yeah god, stop getting involved.
10.05.26 CHILD (O/S):
Mummy!
Vicky shouts to the child from the sofa 10.05.27 VICKY POLLARD
Shut up!
Music In
CT> VT INT- Fat fighters meeting
Marjory stands talking to the group 10.07.58 NARRATOR
Aren’t fat people loathsome. Just look at their stupid fat faces. I’d like to give them all a punch on the nose but I can’t, I’m too fat.
Music Out
Marjory turns on the projector and shows a picture of Mira 10.08.07 MARJORY DAWES
If we get a little bit hungry between meals well, I like to put a little bit of low fat cottage cheese on some Ryvita and you can have that as it is or you can deep fry it. Today’s buzz word is ‘motivisation’. Last week I asked you all to bring in a picture of yourself, not looking at your best to act as an incentive next time you’re reaching for that slice of cake. We like cake though don’t we, we like a bit of cake don’t we, yeah? Cake, give me cake, give me cake now, we like cake, we like cake, I like cake though, I do, I just like cake, I like it a lot, I like cake, give me cake, give me cake, I fancy cake. So, let’s have a look at these pictures, Paul can you dim the lights please. Oh yeah and I don’t want to hear any rustling, this is not an excuse to eat. Let’s have a look at the first photo then…ooh, at home with the Kumars. Have you seen that programme? It’s actually very funny cause their Asian. So, where was this photo take my love, was this in India or…
Marjory talking to Mira 10.09.10 MIRA
New Maulden.
Marjory showing a picture of Tania on the projector 10.09.12 MARJORY DAWES
We’ll never know. Tania? Ooh I bet it took guts to bring that one in my love, and where was this photo taken?
Tania talking to Marjory 10.09.20 TANIA
It was at my sister’s sixtieth.
Marjory showing a picture of Paul by the statue of liberty 10.09.23 MARJORY DAWES
What, you mean you still get invited to family do’s? Well it’s just that if you were my sister I would deny all knowledge of your existence. I mean that in a caring way, bless your overworked heart. Paul, where was this?
Paul talking to Marjory 10.09.38 PAUL
New York.
10.09.39 MARJORY DAWES
Oh, did you pig out when you were there?
10.09.41 PAUL
You know what it’s like when you’re on holiday.
Marjorie goes back round the screen and the Fat fighters watch her silhouette eating sausages and cakes 10.09.44 MARJORY DAWES
Yeah, well that’s why you’re here Paul because you cannot control your binge eating. Oh excuse me for a moment Fat Fighters.
Marjory comes back from behind the screen and shows a picture of Pat 10.10.15 MARJORY DAWES
Had to er, blow my nose. Right let’s have a look at the next picture. Oh mama you fat! So Pat, how does this picture make you feel my darling?
Pat talking to Marjory 10.10.28 PAT
Well, although it was a very happy day, as it was my wedding I do think I look very large in that dress.
10.10.34 MARJORY DAWES
Mmm, did they have to roll you down the aisle?
10.10.37 PAT
No I walked.
10.10.39 MARJORY DAWES
Brave, and even though she looked like that you didn’t have second thoughts, you still went through with it?
Pete looks lovingly at Pat 10.10.43 PETE
Of course. I look at Pat and there’s a beautiful person inside.
Marjory showing a picture of her head super imposed on the body of a very slim woman on a beach 10.10.49 MARJORY DAWES
There’s a few of em! And now because it’s only fair, here’s a picture of me, not looking at my best…. Lost a bit of weight since then obviously. Lights on.
CT> VT EXT- Street
Man and wife pull up in taxi and get out 10.11.10 MAN
Keep the change.
10.11.13 WIFE
Hey, no yawning from you, the night’s not over yet.
Man and wife stop and look at their house. People are throwing up outside, there is music blaring from within 10.11.39 WIFE
Vicky!!
CT> VT INT- Living room
People are spray painting the walls, there is a fire in the middle of the room. Vicky is on the sofa with a boy 10.11.41 VICKY POLLARD
What you doing here, you ain’t invited.
Man and wife stand shouting at Vicky 10.11.43 MAN
Where’s Archie, is he alright?
10.11.44 VICKY POLLARD
Yeah, we sent him down the offie to get some more fags. Don’t give me evils, we’ve given him fake I.D. Anyway I am actually quite busy at the moment trying to get off with this bloke actually if you don’t mind actually.
10.11.54 MAN
Get out, get out of my house.
Vicky gets up and leaves
She comes back in and talks to the man and wife 10.11.56 VICKY POLLARD
Don’t worry we’re going, this party’s like well sad anyway. And I found your porno’s you dirty bastard. Oh yeah and I can do next Tuesday if you want.
Music In
CT> VT INT- Dafydd’s kitchen
Dafydd sitting with his scrap book 10.13.58 NARRATOR
This young man is what we call a homosexual. Some people in Britain are heterosexual, I myself are bi-sexual. Well at my time of life I can’t afford to be too picky.
10.14.12 DAFYDD THOMAS
[SINGING] I think I’m gonna leave right now, before I falls any deeper, think I’m gonna leave right now, for I am feeling weaker and weaker.
Dafydd’s ma walks in with shopping. Dafydd sits at the table and doesn’t get up to help 10.14.23 MA
Can you give me a hand with the shopping Dafydd.
10.14.25 DAFYDD THOMAS
Oh I would do Ma but I’m a little busy at the moment, I’m just updating my Will Young scrapbook.
10.14.31 MA
Oh right.
10.14.33 DAFYDD THOMAS
He’s been such in inspiration to me as the only gay in the village, so brave the way he came out as gay just after he won Pop Idol.
10.14.41 MA
Yes.
Dafydd’s ma hands him his tube of shopping 10.14.43 DAFYDD THOMAS
Did you remember my Smarties?
Dafydd’s ma leans down and starts talking to Dafydd at the table 10.14.45 MA
There you go. Now, me and your dad have been talking and we were thinking it was time maybe you got yourself a job.
10.14.54 DAFYDD THOMAS
Oh I’d love to get myself a job but I can’t.
10.14.57 MA
Why not?
10.14.58 DAFYDD THOMAS
I am a gay.
10.15.00 MA
Oh rubbish.
Dafydd and his ma talking in the kitchen 10.15.02 DAFYDD THOMAS
There’s loads of jobs I’d love to do but can’t because of my sexuality.
10.15.05 MA
Like what?
10.15.06 DAFYDD THOMAS
Hairdresser, airline steward, children’s TV presenter but they simply don’t employ the gays.
Dafydd’s ma sits at the table and talks to Dafydd 10.15.13 MA
Course they do, and if you got yourself a job you could rent your own flat.
10.15.21 DAFYDD THOMAS
How can I rent a flat, I’m a gay. Oh I can just see it now, hello landlord I like men’s bottoms, how’s that going to go down?
10.15.30 MA
Well couldn’t you at least sign on, then we’d have a bit of money coming in.
10.15.33 DAFYDD THOMAS
I can’t go down the Job Centre…
10.15.35 MA
Why, because you’re gay?
Dafydd stands up in protest 10.15.37 DAFYDD THOMAS
That’s right, I’m a homo, I’m a fairy I’m a poofter, Ma, I’m a bum boy.
Dafydd’s mum looks at him 10.15.47 MA
I know.
Dafydd sits back down 10.15.49 DAFYDD THOMAS
Oh sorry I didn’t think I’d mentioned it.
Dafydd’s mum gets up and puts the shopping away 10.15.51 MA
Well make yourself useful and help me put the shopping away.
10.15.56 DAFYDD THOMAS
Mother I am at a critical moment with my bridge deck.
10.16.00 MA
Dafydd.
Dafydd tries to lift the shopping but can’t 10.16.03 DAFYDD THOMAS
Oh I can’t lift it I’m gay.
Dafydd’s ma walks over and picks up the bags 10.16.06 MA
Give it here you big poof.
Dafydd stands up in protest 10.16.09 DAFYDD THOMAS
Homophobe!
10.16.10 MA
Don’t be so stupid.
10.16.11 DAFYDD THOMAS
I’m reporting you to Childline…
10.16.13 MA
What?
ZI> CU of Dafydd talking to himself in protest
Dafydd leaves the kitchen and slams the door 10.16.14 DAFYDD THOMAS
My own mother rejects me, simply for the crime of wanting men’s todgers in my bum bum. How dare you!
Translation - English - Iubito, mi-ai vazut portofelul?
- E langa telefon.
N-ai de gand sa-mi spui cum arat?
Superb.
Cred ca-i bona, deshid eu.
- Tu trebuie sa fii Victoria.
- Nu, adica da, adica io-s de fapt bona.
Intra, ai cam intarziat.
Nu te lua de mine.
Trebuia sa ajung acu juma de ora,
da` n-am putut ca eram toti la MacDonalds
ca Jade McGuire il place pe Lee Cherry
care munceste acolo,
si a fost cel mai tare din scoala,
avea doua stele pe insigna,
una ca a taiat castraveciori
si alta pentru ca sters urina cu mopul.
Shenita i-a spus lu` Lee ca Jade il place
si Jade l-a luat pe Lee si i-a aratat briosele ei.
- Buna, eu sunt Jennifer.
- Aveti cumva Pernod ?
- Archie e deja in pat. Daca se trezeste
nu-l lasa sa se uite la desene animate.
-Ce ?
- Ai mai avut grija de copii pana acum ?
Deci nu-mi vine sa cred ca ma intrebi asta,
chiar ma pricep la copii,
eram odata cu Carrie Delaney la Broadmead
si a nascut unde te astepti mai putin
chiar in mijloc la Top Shop, super tare.
L-am tinut pana s-a dus sa ia un elastic de par.
Am turnat si eu sase, asta se pune ?
- Si cine are grija de ei la noapte ?
- Nu stiu.
- O sa fii in regula ?
- Doamne, las-o mai moale.
- Mama!
- Taci din gura!
Oamenii grasi sunt dezgustatori.
Uitati-va la fetele lor idioate si grase.
I-as pocni drept in figura, dar nu pot ca-s prea grasa.
Daca mi se face foame, mananc
niste branza slaba cu paine cu cereale
si poti s-o mananci asa sau s-o prajesti.
Cuvantul cheie de azi este ``motivizare``.
Saptamana trecuta v-am cerut sa aduceti o poza,
in care nu aratati asa de bine,
Sa functioneze ca un stimulent
atunci cand vreti sa insfacati o prajitura.
Totusi tuturor ne plac prajiturile, nu-i asa ?
Si mie-mi plac la nebunie prajiturile.
Ia sa ne uitam la pozele astea.
Paul, stinge lumina!
Si sa nu va aud foindu-va,
nu e o scuza sa mancati.
Sa aruncam o privire pe prima poza,
acasa la familia Kumars.
Stiti serialul ?
E foarte amuzant pentru ca sunt asiatici.
-Unde e facuta poza ? In India sau...
- New Maulden.
Nu vom sti niciodata.
Tania, cred ca ti-a trebuit ceva curaj
sa aduci poza asta.
- Unde a fost facuta ?
- Cand a implinit sora mea 16 ani.
Adica mai esti invitata la evenimentele de familie ?
Daca erai sora mea te renegam.
Din dragoste, vreau sa zic.
Binecuvantata sa-ti fie inima sleita.
- Paul, asta unde a fost facuta ?
- In New York.
- Ai mancat ca un porc cat ai stat acolo ?
- Pai, stii cum e cand esti in vacanta.
De asta esti aici.
Nu-ti poti controla nevoia de a te ghiftui.
Scuzati-ma un moment, Luptatori cu Grasimile.
Mi-am suflat nasul.
Poza urmatoare. Ce grasana!
Cum te simti cand te uiti la asta, Pat ?
Desi era ziua nuntii mele, o zi fericita,
chiar arat foarte mare in poza aia.
- Te-au rostogolit pana la altar ?
- Nu, am mers.
- Ce curaj! si desi arata asa, nu te-ai razgandit ?
- Nu. Pat e o persoana frumoasa pe dinauntru.
Cred ca sunt mai multe.
Aici sunt eu, nu eram intr-o forma buna.
Am mai slabit de atunci. Aprindeti lumina!
- Pastreaza restul!
- Sa nu te vad cascand. Seara nu s-a terminat.
- Ce faceti aici ? Nu sunteti invitati!
- Unde-i Archie ? E in regula ?
L-am trimis la magazin sa cumpere tigari.
Calmeaza-te, i-am dat un buletin fals.
-Nu te supara, sunt cam ocupata acum cu tipul asta.
-Iesiti afara din casa mea!
Plecam, stai pe pace,
si asa petrecerea asta era cam plictisitoare.
Ti-am gasit revistele porno, ticalos pervers.
Sunt libera martea viitoare daca aveti nevoie.
Acest tanar e ceea ce numim noi un homosexual.
Unii oameni in Marea Britanie sunt heterosexuali.
Eu insumi sunt bisexual.
La varsta mea nu-mi permit sa mai fiu pretentios.
- Poti sa ma ajuti cu pachetele astea, Daffyd ?
- Sunt putin ocupat, imi actualizez albumul cu Will Young.
A fost o adevarata inspiratie pentru mine,
singurul homosexual din sat.
Ce fel a recunoscut ca e homosexual,
chiar dupa ce a castigat Pop Idol.
- Mi-ai luat Smarties ?
- Eu si tatal tau ne gandeam ca e timpul sa te angajezi.
Mi-ar placea, dar nu pot.
De ce nu?
Sunt homosexual.
Prostii.
Mi-ar placea sa fac atatea lucruri
si nu pot din cauza orientarii mele.
Si care ar fi astea ?
Stilist, steward, prezentator de programe pentru copii.
Dar nu angajeaza homosexuali.
Ba da.
Daca te-ai angaja, ti-ai inchiria un apartament.
Cum sa inchiriez un apartament, sunt gay.
Cum ar suna asta : ``Proprietarule,
imi plac fundurile barbatilor`` ?
Ai putea macar sa te angajezi,
asa am mai avea si noi niste bani.
Nu pot sa ma duc la Fortele de Munca...
De ce? Pentru ca esti gay ?
Da, sunt homosexual, imi plac fundurile.
Stiu.
Nu credeam ca am mai spus-o.
- Ajuta-ma sa pun cumparaturile la loc.
- Mama, sunt intr-un punct critic.
- Nu pot s-o ridic, sunt gay.
- Da-o-ncoace, poponarule.
- Esti o homofoba!
- Nu fi prost.
- Te reclam la Drepturile Copilului...
- Cum ?
Propria mama ma respinge,
doar pentru ca-mi place cocoselul barbatilor.
Cum indraznesti ?
Romanian to English: The bill that could break up Europe. If eastern Europe goes down, it may take the European Union with it General field: Other Detailed field: Economics
Source text - Romanian
TUMBLING exchange rates, gaping current-account deficits, fearsome foreign-currency borrowings and nasty recessions: these sound like the ingredients of a distant third-world-debt crisis from the 1980s and 1990s. Yet in Europe the mess has been cooked up closer to home, in east European countries, many of them now members of the European Union. One consequence is that older EU countries will find themselves footing the bill for clearing it up.Many west Europeans, faced with severe recession at home, will see this as outrageously unfair. The east Europeans have been on a binge fuelled by foreign investment, the desire for western living standards and the hope that most would soon be able to adopt Europe’s single currency, the euro. Critics argue, with some justice, that some east European countries were ill-prepared for EU membership; that they have botched or sidestepped reforms; and that they have wasted their borrowed billions on construction and consumption booms. Surely they should pay the price for their own folly?Yet if a country such as Hungary or one of the Baltic three went under, west Europeans would be among the first to suffer (see article). Banks from Austria, Italy and Sweden, which have invested and lent heavily in eastern Europe, would see catastrophic losses if the value of their assets shrivelled. The strain of default, combined with atavistic protectionist instincts coming to the fore all over Europe, could easily unravel the EU’s proudest achievement, its single market.Indeed, collapse in the east would quickly raise questions about the future of the EU itself. It would destabilise the euro—for some euro members, such as Ireland and Greece, are not in much better shape than eastern Europe. And it would spell doom for any chance of further enlarging the EU, raising new doubts about the future prospects of the western Balkans, Turkey and several countries from the former Soviet Union.The political consequences of letting eastern Europe go could be graver still. One of Europe’s greatest feats in the past 20 years was peacefully to reunify the continent after the end of the Soviet empire. Russia is itself in serious economic trouble, but its leaders remain keen to exploit any chance to reassert their influence in the region. Moreover, if the people of eastern Europe felt they had been cut adrift by western Europe, they could fall for populists or nationalists of a kind who have come to power far too often in Europe’s history.
How to avert disaster
The question for western Europe’s leaders is how best to avert such a disaster. Although markets often treat eastern Europe as one economic unit, every country in the region is different. Three broad groups stand out. The first includes countries that are a long way from joining the EU, such as Ukraine. Here European institutions may help financially or with advice, but the main burden should fall on the International Monetary Fund. These countries will have to take the IMF medicine of debt restructuring and fiscal tightening that was meted out so often in previous emerging-market crises.Things are different for the countries farther west, all EU members for which the union must take prime responsibility. One much-touted remedy is to accelerate their path to the euro, or even let them adopt it immediately. It might make sense for the four countries with exchange rates pegged to the euro: the Baltic trio of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, plus Bulgaria. (Slovenia and Slovakia have joined the euro already.) None of these will meet the Maastricht treaty’s criteria for euro entry any time soon. But they are tiny (the Baltics have a population of barely 7m), so letting them adopt the euro ought not to set an unwelcome precedent for others nor should it damage confidence in the single currency. Yet the European Central Bank and the European Commission firmly oppose this form of “euroisation”, even though two Balkan countries, Montenegro and Kosovo, use the euro already.Unilateral or accelerated adoption of the euro would make far less sense for a third group of bigger countries with floating exchange rates: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania. None of these is ready for the tough discipline of a single currency that rules out any future devaluation. Their premature entry could fatally weaken the euro. But as their currencies slide, the big vulnerability for the Poles, Hungarians and Romanians, especially, arises from the debt taken on by firms and households in foreign currency, mainly from foreign-owned banks. What once seemed a canny convergence play now looks like a barmy risk, for both the borrowers and the banks, chiefly Italian and Austrian, that lent to them.
Stopping the rot
The first priority for these four must be to stop further currency collapse. The second is to prop up the banks responsible for the foreign-currency loans that are going bad. The pain of this should be shared four ways: between the banks and their debtors, and between governments of both lending and borrowing countries. From outside, these two tasks will necessitate help from several sources: the European Central Bank as well as the IMF, the commission’s structural funds, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and perhaps the European Investment Bank. Given the scale of the problem, the lack of co-ordination between these outfits has been scandalous. A third aim must be to get eastern European countries to restart the structural reforms they have evaded thus far.Bailing out the same mythical Polish plumbers who just stole everybody’s jobs will be hard for Europe’s leaders to sell on the doorsteps of Berlin, Bradford and Bordeaux, especially with the xenophobic right in full cry. German taxpayers are already worried that others are after their hard-earned cash (see article). The bill will indeed be huge, but in truth western Europe cannot afford not to pay it. The meltdown of any EU country in the region, let alone the break-up of the euro or the single market, would be catastrophic for all of Europe; and on this issue there is little prospect of much help from America, China or elsewhere. It is certainly not too late to rescue the east; but politicians need to start making the case for it now.
The whiff of contagion . Eastern Europe’s woes are not unmanageable. But they are not being managed. The result could be catastrophe
AMID the wreckage of Latvia’s retailing industry, which has declined 17% year on year according to the latest figures, one item is selling well: T-shirts with seemingly mysterious slogans such as “Nasing spesal”. Latvians are glad to have something to laugh about, even if it is only their finance minister, Atis Slakteris. In an ill-judged foreign television interview, using heavily accented and idiosyncratic English worthy of the film character Borat, he described his country’s economic problems as “nothing special”. Put mildly, that was an original interpretation. Fuelled by reckless bank lending, particularly in construction and consumer loans, Latvia had enjoyed a colossal boom, with double-digit economic growth and a current-account deficit that peaked at over 20% of GDP. Conventional wisdom would have suggested applying the brakes hard, by tightening the budget and curbing borrowing. But the country’s rulers, a lightweight lot with close ties to business, rejected that. Fast economic growth made voters feel that European Union membership was at last producing practical benefits, after a disappointing start when tens of thousands of Latvians went abroad in search of work, leaving rural villages and small towns depopulated. The central assumption, in Latvia and many other countries in or near the EU, was that convergence with rich Europe’s living standards and other comforts was inevitable. Lending in foreign currency went from 60% of the total in 2004 to 90% in 2008. Why pay high interest rates in the local currency, the lat, when the cost of a euro loan was so much cheaper? In a few years Latvia would surely join the euro anyway. Similarly, worries about financing the inflows were dismissed: Swedish banks would no more abandon their subsidiaries in Latvia than they would pull out of, say, southern Sweden.Last year tested those assumptions nearly to breaking point. First, Latvia’s housing bubble popped. Then the main locally owned bank, Parex, went bust and had to be nationalised, amid fears that it could not pay two syndicated loans due this year. In December Latvia accepted a humiliating €7.5 billion ($9.56 billion) bail-out led by the IMF.The big cuts in social spending that the package entailed led to vigorous public protests. Now the government has resigned. At a time when strong leadership and public trust are needed more than ever, the country’s squabbling and discredited politicians look hopelessly out of their depth. Latvia is an economic pipsqueak, with just 2.4m people. But the rest of the region is watching nervously, fearful that more bad news from the Baltics could bring others crashing down too.It is easy to be pessimistic. This is indeed the worst economic crisis since the collapse of the communist planned economies and the wrenching process of privatisation, liberalisation and stabilisation that followed. The main ex-communist economies are likely to contract by 3% this year, according to Capital Economics, a consultancy. Yet the picture is not uniform. Only a few countries have needed an IMF bail-out. One is Latvia, whose economy is set to contract by at least 12% this year, and whose credit rating has just been downgraded by Standard & Poor’s to junk. Another is Hungary, burdened with a larger debt-to-GDP ratio than almost any other new EU member. It received $25 billion in October and faces a contraction of up to 6%. A third is Ukraine—chaotically run, corrupt and badly hit by the slowdown in its main export market, Russia. Ukraine’s IMF deal brought it $4.5 billion in November. But a second tranche of $1.9 billion is stuck; the deal is unravelling as politicians squabble over spending cuts. Its economy is likely to shrink by 10% this year. Other countries with IMF packages agreed or pending include Belarus (a Russian ally which is still expected to see growth this year), Georgia (which was bailed out after last year’s war with Russia) and Serbia.Most other countries in the region are faring much better, though. Poland—by far the largest economy of the new EU members—is nowhere near collapse. Unlike its central European neighbours, it is big enough not to depend chiefly on exports to the rest of the EU. By European standards, its public finances are in fairly good shape. Its debt-to-GDP ratio is below 50%. Growth will be negligible, or slightly negative, but nobody is forecasting a big decline. Some Polish firms and households have taken out foreign-currency loans—but the figure is around 30% of all private-sector lending, compared with twice that in Hungary. The second-biggest economy, the Czech Republic, is in good shape too. Its economy may shrink by 2%, but it has a solid banking system and low debt. Its neighbour Slovakia is in better shape still: it managed to join the euro zone this year. Like Slovenia, which joined two years ago, Slovakia can enjoy the full protection of rich Europe’s currency union, rather than just the indirect benefit of being due to join it some day.Farther afield, the picture is very different. For the poorest ex-communist economies, the problem is not financial meltdown. They lack much to melt. Their exports are raw materials, agricultural products and people. In six countries, money sent home by foreign workers counts for more than 10% of GDP (in Tajikistan and Moldova it is more than 30%). Outsiders who agonise over the Latvian lat or Hungarian forint are rarely bothered with worries about the somoni (Tajikistan), leu (Moldova) or manat (Turkmenistan). That highlights an important problem. Outsiders tend to lump “the ex-communist world” or “eastern Europe” together, as though a shared history of totalitarian captivity was the main determinant of economic fortune, two decades after the evil empire collapsed. Though many problems are shared, the differences between the ex-communist countries are often greater than those that distinguish them from the countries of “old Europe” (see table). They range from distant, dirt-poor despotic places to countries in the EU that are not just richer than some of the old ones, but have better credit ratings, sounder public finances and stronger public institutions. In almost any contest for good government, stability or prosperity, Slovenia (under a sort of communism until 1991) looks better than Greece, which invented democracy and was never communist.
Translation - English Banii ar putea dezbina Europa. Daca Europa de Est se scufunda, ia si Uniunea Europeana cu ea.
Rate de schimb in declin, deficite enorme de cont curent, imprumuturi uriase in moneda straina si recesiuni amenintatoare : acestea par a fi ingredientele unei crize financiare din lumea a treia a anilor1980 - 1990. Si totusi scenariul dezastrului a fost urzit undeva mai aproape de noi, in tarile est europene, multe dintre ele actualmente membre ale Uniunii Europene.
Una din consecintele acestei situatii este ca vechile tari UE vor fi nevoite sa plateasca nota pentru a face ordine in aceasta privinta.
Multe din tarile vest-europene care se confrunta cu efectele unei dure recesiuni, vor percepe acest lucru ca extrem de nedrept. Tarile est europene s-au confruntat cu un exces alimentat de investiile straine, dorinta de a trai conform standardelor occidentale si speranta ca majoritatea vor reusi sa treaca la moneda unica europeana, euro. Criticii sustin pe buna dreptate, ca unele tari est europene nu vor fi pregatite pentru aderarea la Uniunea Europeana; ca au infaptuit cu superficialitate reformele, sau chiar deloc; si ca au irosit miliardele imprumutate in vederea unei explozii in industria de consum si in constructii. Cu siguranta vor fi nevoite sa plateasca pretul propriei prostii. Si totusi, in cazul in care o tara precum Ungaria sau una din tarile baltice s-ar prabusi, tarile din Europa de Vest ar avea de suferit in primul rand. Banci din Austria, Italia si Suedia, care au investit si au acordat imprumuturi tarilor din Europa de Est, s-ar confrunta cu pierderi uriase daca valoarea actiunilor ar scadea. Presiunea cauzata de neplata datoriilor, combinata cu instinctele primitiv-protectioniste vizibile peste tot in Europa, ar putea cu usurinta rezolva chestiunea pietei unice, cea mai de seama realizare a Uniunii Europene. Si intr-adevar, colapsul tarilor din estul Europei ar pune sub semn de intrebare viitorul Uniunii Europene in ansamblul ei, ar destabiliza moneda euro- unii membri care au adoptat euro, cum ar fi Irlanda si Grecia, nu sunt intr-o situatie mai buna decat tarile est-europene.
Ba mai mult, ar limita sansele altor tari de a se altura Uniunii Europene, ridicand dubii cu privire la perspectivele tarilor la vest de Balacani, Turciei si tarilor ex-sovietice.
Si totusi abandonarea Europei de est ar atrage dupa sine consecinte politice si mai grave. Una din marile isprave ale Europei din ultimii 20 de ani a fost reunificarea pasnica a continentului dupa prabusirea imperiului Sovietic.
Rusia insasi se confrunta cu grave probleme economice, insa liderii sai nu pierd nici o ocazie pentru a-si reafirma influenta in regiune.
In plus, daca cetatenii din tarile Europei de est au simtit ca se indeparteaza de Occident, acestia ar putea fi dusi de nas de populistii sau nationalistii care au venit la putere de prea multe ori in istoria Europei.
Cum sa evitam dezastrul
Liderii tarilor vest-europene se confrunta acum cu problema evitarii unui asemenea dezastru. Cu toate ca Europa de Est este perceputa ca o unitate economica de sine statatoare, fiecare tara din regiune este diferita. Trei mari grupuri se evidentiaza. Primul include tari care sunt departe de a se alatura Uniunii Europene, cum ar fi Ucraina. In cazul acesta, institutiile europene ar putea acorda consiliere sau ajutor financiar, insa povara cea mai grea ar cadea pe Fondul Monetar International. Aceste tari vor fi nevoite sa ia pastila restructurarii si intaririi fiscale oferita de FMI si impusa atat de des in timpul crizelor de pe pietele in dezvoltare/emergente. Nu la fel stau lucrurile pentru tarile din vest, care sunt responsabilitatea principala a uniunii. Un remediu neplacut este accelerarea drumului spre euro sau chiar adoptarea imediata a monedei. Ar putea parea logic in cazul celor patru tari care au trecut la euro : trio-ul Baltic format din Estonia, Letonia plus Lituania si Bulgaria. (Slovenia si Slovacia au trecut de curand la euro).
Nici una din aceste tari nu va indeplini prea curand criteriile tratatului de la Maastricht pentru trecerea la moneda europeana. Vorbim insa de tari mici (tarile Baltice au o populatie care abia atinge 7 mil de locuitori), asfel ca trecerea la euro nu ar crea un precedent pentru alte tari si nici nu ar afecta increderea in moneda unica.
Si totusi Banca Central Europeana si Comisia Europeana se opun cu fermitate acestei forme de ''euroizare'', desi doua dintre tarile balcanice, Montenegro and Kosovo, folosesc deja euro.
Adoptarea unilaterala sau accelerata a monedei euro ar avea si mai putina logica pentru un al treilea grup de tari mai mari si care se confrunta cu rate de schimb fluctuante : Republica Ceha, Ungaria, Polonia si Romania. Niciuna din aceste tari nu este pregatita pentru dura disciplina impusa de moneda unica care face imposibila orice viitoare devalorizare.
Adoptarea prematura a euro de catre aceste tari, ar slabi iremediabil moneda.
Insa pe masura ce monedele nationale din aceste tari se prabusesc, creste vulnerabilitatea Poloniei, Ungariei si Romaniei in mod special, din cauza datoriilor preluate de firme si administratie in moneda straina, in principal de la banci din afara.
Ceea ce odinioara parea o mutare convergenta prudenta, acum e un risc nebunesc, asumat si de solicitanti si de banci, in principal cele din Italia si Austria, care au incordat imprumuturile.
Stoparea efectelor negative
Prioritatea celor patru tari trebuie sa fie impiedicarea prabusirii monedei nationale. O a doua prioritate este sustinerea bancilor responsabile de imprumuturile in moneda straina care au dus la aceasta situatie. Masurile trebuie impartite in patru directii : intre banci si debitori, si intre cele doua guverne din tara de provenienta a debitorilor si din tara de provenienta a bancilor.
Din afara, aceste doua sarcini vor necesita ajutor din mai multe directii : Banca Centrala Europeana la fel ca si FMI, fondurile structurale ale comisiei europene, Banca Europeana pentru Reconstructie si Dezvoltaresi probabil Banca Europeana de Investitii.
Date find dimensiunile problemei, lipsa de coordonare intre aceste institutii a fost scandaloasa
Un al treilea obiectiv este ca tarille est europene sa repuna in aplicare reformele structurale pe care le-au eludat pana acum.
Nu va fi usor pentru liderii europeni sa vanda la portile Berlinului, Bradford-ului si Bordeaux-ului povestea salvarii legendarilor instalatori polonezi care au furat locurile de munca ale tuturor, avand in vedere virulenta cu care este atacata xenofobia.
Cetatenii germani platitori de taxe isi exprima deja ingrijorarea ca banii cu greu castigati sunt ravniti de altii. Factura va fi intr-adevar mare, dar la fel de adevarat este si faptul ca Europa de Vest nu isi poate permite sa nu o plateasca.
Prabusirea oricareia dintre tarile UE din regiune, fara a mai mentiona deprecierea euro sau piata unica, ar fi catastrofale pentru intreaga Europa; in plus, perspectiva unui ajutor din partea SUA, China sau din orice alta parte a lumii este putin probabila. Cu siguranta nu este prea tarziu pentru tarile est europene, insa politicienii trebuie sa inceapa sa pledeze acum pentru salvarea lor.
Iz de molima. Dificultatile Europei de est nu sunt insurmontabile. Si totusi nu se face nimic. Consecintele ar putea fi catastrofale.
(*The gross domestic product (GDP) or gross domestic income (GDI), a basic measure of an economy's economic performance, is the market value of all final goods and services produced within the borders of a nation in a year=Produsul intern brut (PIB)
*Conventional wisdom (CW) is a term used to describe ideas or explanations that are generally accepted as true by the public or by experts in a field. The term implies that the ideas or explanations, though widely held, are unexamined and, hence, may be reevaluated upon further examination or as events unfold=corp de cunostinte universal acceptate care ne parvin de obicei prin formulari de tipul "un grup de cercetatori americani au descoperit" sau "un studiu intreprins de oamenii de stiinta britanici". )
In Letonia, pe ruinele industriei de vanzare cu amanuntul care a scazut cu 17 procente de la an la an conform ultimelor estimari, exista un articol care se vinde bine : tricourile cu sloganuri aparent misterioase, cum ar fi ''Nic osebit''. Letonii sunt bucurosi ca au de ce sa se amuze, chiar daca este vorba doar de Ministrul lor de Finante, Atis Slakteris.
Intr-un interviu prost interpretat, acordat unui post de televiziune strain, intr-o engleza excesiv pronuntata si idiosincratica demna de personajul Borat, a descris situatia economica in care se fla tara sale ca fiind ''Nimic deosebit''.
Intr-o oarecare masura, poate fi privita ca fiind o interpretare originala.
Alimentata de credite bancare periculoase, in special imprumuturile din constructii si cele acordate consumatorilor, Letonia s-a bucurat de un boom imens, cu o crestere economica de 2 cifre si un deficit de cont curent care a atins peste 20% din PIB.
Intelepciunea conventionala ar fi sugerat aplicarea dura a restrictiilor, prin restrangerea bugetului si tinerea in frau a imprumuturilor. Insa conducatorii tarii, un grup de categorie usoara cu legaturi in lumea afacerilor, au respins ideea.
Cresterea economica rapida i-a facut pe alegatori sa se increada ca apartenenta la UE aducea in sfarsit beneficii vizibile, dupa un inceput dezamagitor cand zeci de mii de letoni au luat drumul strainatatii in cautarea unui loc de munca , lasand aproape pustii zonele rurale si orasele mici.
In Letonia si in multe alte tari din UE sau aproape de aderare, principala supozitie care circula era aceea ca adoptarea confortului vest european si a standardelor de viata ridicate era un lucru inevitabil. Creditele in moneda europeana au ajuns de la 60% in 2004 la 90% in 2008. De ce sa platesti rate ridicate la dobanda in moneda locala, lats-ul, cand costul unui imprumut in euro era mult mai ieftin?
Oricum, in cativa ani Letonia va trece cu siguranta la euro . La fel, ingrijorarile cu privire la finantarea numerarului au fost respinse.: bancile din Suedia nu isi mai abandonau filialele din Letonia.
Aceste ipoteze au fost testate in cursul anului trecut ajungandu-se aproape de impact. La inceput, a iesit la iveala problema locuintelor. Apoi banca de stat, Parex a dat faliment si a fost nationalizata, situatie alimentata si de temerile ca nu va fi in stare sa plateasca in cursul acestui an doua credite sindicalizate. In decembrie Letonia a acceptat un umilitor imprumut de 7.5 miliarde acordat de FMI. Asta a dus la diminuarea cheltuielilor sociale a atras dupa sine proteste virulente. Guvernul a demisionat intr-un moment in care era nevoie mai mult ca oricand de conducatori cu mana forte si de incredere publica, tara e in plin scandal iar politicieni discreditati privesc cu disperare din mizeria in care s-au afundat.
Letonia, tara cu cu doar 2,4 milioane de locuitori, e o nulitate din punct de vedere economic.
Cu toate acestea, restul regiunii urmareste cu emotie si cu teama ca vestile proaste din Balcani ar putea duce la prabusirea altor tari. Si nu ai cum sa nu fii pesimist. Este intr-adevar cea mai grava criza economica de la colapsul sistemelor economice comuniste urmat de procesul fortat de privatizare., liberalizare si stabilizare care au urmat.
Principalele economii ex-comuniste vor contracta probabil pana la 3% in acest an, conform firmei de consultanta Capital Economics.Cu toate acestea tabloul nu este uniform. Doar cateva tari au avut nevoie de un imprumut FMI. Una din ele este Letonia, a carei economii va avea o crestere economica de cel putin 12% acest an, si al carei rating de credit a fost redus la nimic de Standard & Poors. A doua tara este Ungaria, impovarata cu o datorie publica in raport cu PIB-ul mai mult decat orice alta tara membra UE.
A primit 25 de miliarde in octombrie si se confrunta cu o contractare de pana la 6%. A treia tara este Ucraina, condusa haotic, corupta si afectata sever de scaderile inregistrate pe principala piata a exporturilor, Rusia. Acordul Ucrainei cu FMI i-a adus in vistierie 4.5 miliarde in luna noiembrie.
O a doua transa de 1,9 miliarde este blocata; acordul este scos la iveala pe masura ce politicienii se cearta pe reducerile cheltuielilor. Economia acestei tari va cobori la pragul de 10% in acest an.
Alte tari care au cerut imprumuturi de la FMI care au fost aprobate sau sunt in curs de aprobare, include Belarus-ul (un aliat al Rusiei de la care se asteapta o crestere economica in acest an), Georgia (care a fost creditata dupa razboiul din ultimii ani cu Rusia) ai Serbia.
Mare parte din restul tarilor din regiune au o situatie mult mai buna. Polonia, recenta membra UE si una din marile economii din regiune, este departe de colaps. Spre deosebire de vecinii din Europa centrala, Polonia e o tara destul de mare incat sa nu depinda in principal de exporturile spre restul UE. Conform standardelor europene, finantele publice sunt intr-o stare cat se poate de buna.
Datoria publica ca si cota a PIB este sub 50%. Cresterea va fi nesemnificativ sau usor negativa, insa nu se intrezareste un declin major.
Unele firme si asociatii familiale poloneze au contractat imprumuturi in moneda straina, insa cifra acestora se situeaza la 30% din totalul imprumuturilor din sectorul privat, spre deosebire de Ungaria unde procentul este dublu.
Si Republica Ceha, a doua mare economie, se afla intr-o situatie buna.
Economia sa ar putea scadea la 2% insa are un sistem bancar solid si o rata scazuta a datoriilor.
Vecina sa Slovacia se prezinta si mai bine : in cursul acestui an a reusit sa intre in zona euro.
La fel ca Slovenia, care a reusit asta acum doi ani, Slovacia se bucura mai mult de protectia tarilor bogate ale UE, decat de un simplu beneficiu indirect datorat faptului ca intr-o zi va adera la zona euro.
Pe masura ce inaintam, tabloul se schimba. Pentru cele mai sarace economii ex comuniste, problema nu o reprezinta fluidizarea financiara tocmai pentru ca nu prea are ce sa se fluidizeze.
Exporturile sunt reprezentate de materia prima, produse agricole si oameni. In sase tari, banii trimisi acasa de cei care muncesc in afara reprezinta peste 10% din PIB (in Tadjikistan si Moldova acesta este de peste 30%)
Cei din afara acestei zone care sufera din cauza lats-ului din Letonia si forint-ului din Ungaria, nu-si fac griji din cauza monedei somoni din Tdjikistan, leului moldovenesc sau manat-ului din Turkmenistan.
Acest fapt scoate in prim plan o chesiune grava.
Aceleasi personaje au tendinta de a pune laolalta lumea ex-comunista sau Europa de est, ca si cum o istorie comuna de captivitate totalitarista a fost principala cauza a soartei economice, la douazeci de ani dupa prabusirea ticalosului imperiu.
Desi impartasesc multe probleme, diferentele dintre fostele tari comuniste sunt de cele mai multe ori mai mari decat cele care le deosebesc de tarile batranei Europe, de la locuri indepartate, sarace si despotice la tari care fac parte din UE si care nu sunt mai bogate decat unele din vechile tari europene, insa au rating-uri de credit mai bune, un sistem de finante publice mai sanatos si institutii publice mai puternice.
La aproape orice competitie la cares-ar premia cel mai bun guvern, stabilitatea si prosperitatea, |Slovenia (care a fost sub un fel de ocupatie comunista pana in 1991) s-ar plasa mai bine decat Grecia, tara care a inventat democratia si nu s-a aflat niciodata sub un regim comunist.
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