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Corona quarantine diary
Autor de la hebra: Mervyn Henderson

Mervyn Henderson  Identity Verified
España
Local time: 18:32
Miembro
español al inglés
+ ...
PERSONA QUE INICIÓ LA HEBRA
In and out May 6

Deaths down a little. I think. Not sure. Been snowed under with work today since early morning. Three different customers and not one mention of the virus for a change.

expressisverbis
 

RobinB  Identity Verified
Estados Unidos
Local time: 11:32
alemán al inglés
Few hopes for now May 6

expressisverbis wrote: It was reported in the latest news that coronavirus is becoming weaker.
A group of Arizona's researchers tested a sample of Covid-19 patients (swab testing, I believe) and have discovered changes in the genetic material of the virus.
On the other hand, Israel announced scientists have found a "monoclonal neutralising antibody", an antibody that defends a cell from infectious particles.
In the meantime, the race towards a coronavirus vaccine is being a global effort for the humankind.
All viruses are prone to mutate, and to lose their "vigour".
Is coronavirus starting to lose its power?
Every morning in these endless months I awake up and read the first headlines on the search for a cure, a miracle, or a treatment/vaccine against this "monster"...
We will get there!


On the contrary, it appears that a dominant strain could be emerging that is even more infectious:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52557955

Do viruses really get weaker as they mutate? Sure, some mutations will be less effective than the original strain, but others will inevitably be stronger, and the stronger ones are likely to prevail. Is the common cold (another coronavirus family) less intense now than it was 50 or 100 years ago? Or influenza? (whereby some strains of the flu virus are certainly less aggressive than others) Or Ebola? Smallpox didn't get any weaker before we were able to eradicate it.

Sorry to disappoint you. We might get some potentially efficacious vaccines within the next twelve months, but even then, a lot will depend on how strongly the virus mutates and how quickly the pharma labs can keep up.


 

Michele Fauble  Identity Verified
Estados Unidos
Local time: 09:32
Miembro 2006
noruego al inglés
Viruses and natural selection May 6

Viruses tend to mutate to become less virulent over time.

The only “aim” of a virus is to reproduce. It doesn’t need to kill you, or even make you very sick, it just needs to use you. A virus that kills you quickly, or makes you so sick that you are bedridden, rather than out infecting others, is not a very successful virus. A very successful virus is one that is very contagious, causes symptoms that help it spread (coughing, sneezing, for example) and evades containment measu
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Viruses tend to mutate to become less virulent over time.

The only “aim” of a virus is to reproduce. It doesn’t need to kill you, or even make you very sick, it just needs to use you. A virus that kills you quickly, or makes you so sick that you are bedridden, rather than out infecting others, is not a very successful virus. A very successful virus is one that is very contagious, causes symptoms that help it spread (coughing, sneezing, for example) and evades containment measures (such as vaccines).



[Edited at 2020-05-06 21:29 GMT]
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Jennifer Forbes
Chris S
 

Michele Fauble  Identity Verified
Estados Unidos
Local time: 09:32
Miembro 2006
noruego al inglés
Deleted May 6

Double post

[Edited at 2020-05-06 17:00 GMT]


 

expressisverbis
Portugal
Local time: 17:32
Miembro 2015
inglés al portugués
+ ...
There is still some hope May 6

RobinB wrote:

On the contrary, it appears that a dominant strain could be emerging that is even more infectious:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52557955

Do viruses really get weaker as they mutate? Sure, some mutations will be less effective than the original strain, but others will inevitably be stronger, and the stronger ones are likely to prevail. Is the common cold (another coronavirus family) less intense now than it was 50 or 100 years ago? Or influenza? (whereby some strains of the flu virus are certainly less aggressive than others) Or Ebola? Smallpox didn't get any weaker before we were able to eradicate it.

Sorry to disappoint you. We might get some potentially efficacious vaccines within the next twelve months, but even then, a lot will depend on how strongly the virus mutates and how quickly the pharma labs can keep up.


I have also read one article similar to that one of BBC, but I am confident that lessons from those past outbreaks will help us to figh this pandemic.
Let's hope the novel coronavirus won't mutate dramatically and for the worse by the time we come out with a vaccine.
(By the way, I have some good news: my sister finally tested negative after almost one month and a half of undertaking Covid-19 positive tests.)
While there's life there's hope!

[Edited at 2020-05-06 17:32 GMT]

[Edited at 2020-05-06 17:36 GMT]


Mervyn Henderson
 

RobinB  Identity Verified
Estados Unidos
Local time: 11:32
alemán al inglés
Lessons learned May 6

expressisverbis wrote: I am confident that lessons from those past outbreaks will help us to figh this pandemic.


Judging by the current "management" of the pandemic here in the US, I wouldn't be so confident that lessons from past outbreaks have been learned. In the clash between short-term political goals (in this case, re-election) and long-term public health objectives, it's clear where the priorities lie. And the weaker the mitigation in the US becomes, the stronger the virus spread can become, transitioning seemlessly into the second wave.

Great news about your sister! Doesn't mean she's immune, of course, but at least she can't infect anybody else.


expressisverbis
Kevin Fulton
 

expressisverbis
Portugal
Local time: 17:32
Miembro 2015
inglés al portugués
+ ...
Solidarity May 6

RobinB wrote:

Judging by the current "management" of the pandemic here in the US, I wouldn't be so confident that lessons from past outbreaks have been learned. In the clash between short-term political goals (in this case, re-election) and long-term public health objectives, it's clear where the priorities lie. And the weaker the mitigation in the US becomes, the stronger the virus spread can become, transitioning seemlessly into the second wave.

Great news about your sister! Doesn't mean she's immune, of course, but at least she can't infect anybody else.


Robin,
There's always a before, and an after, we just don't know exactly the right path yet to follow (we will get there soon), but I know that no one is left behind, and all efforts are being made, even with a "bad" scenario.
Thanks. No, it doesn't mean she's immune, but she's wise
A virtual hug or a few friendly words don't help much, but stay positive

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_2zWfpYmoaY

virtual hug

to everyone!

[Edited at 2020-05-06 20:36 GMT]


Mervyn Henderson
 

Michael Wetzel  Identity Verified
Alemania
Local time: 18:32
alemán al inglés
Humbug. May 7

RobinB wrote:

Do viruses really get weaker as they mutate? Sure, some mutations will be less effective than the original strain, but others will inevitably be stronger, and the stronger ones are likely to prevail. Is the common cold (another coronavirus family) less intense now than it was 50 or 100 years ago? Or influenza? (whereby some strains of the flu virus are certainly less aggressive than others) Or Ebola? Smallpox didn't get any weaker before we were able to eradicate it.


Sorry to repeat Michele, but what do you mean by "effective" and "stronger"? Better at killing people? Unless you believe this virus has somehow been to designed to kill people (divine wrath, conspiracy theories, etc.), then "effective" = making more babies (or maybe babies' babies, i.e., grandchildren, because some traits could increase the number of direct offspring at the cost of their offspring). Generally, it's great to get people sneezing and coughing and keeping them doing so for as long as possible and with a minimum of any kinds of problems (such as death) that might prevent them from sneezing and coughing on others. Yes, short-term mutation works in mysterious ways, but I would certainly guess the flu is generally far less lethal now than it was thousands of years ago, and the occasional highly lethal variants that show up as epidemics quickly die out again, replaced by their "weaker" competitors, because the "stronger" ones are less effective at reproducing themselves. Or did I misunderstand the most fundamental principle of the theory of evolution?

And just because a bunch of nutjobs in tin hats showed up in Lansing and other state capitols does not mean that what they are saying makes no sense. That also applies to the self-serving logic of the head-nutjobber-in-charge. Particularly in the "exceptional" US, with the somewhat unusual character of its healthcare system, system of public social support, radically libertarian labor regulations and massive private and business debt, it is important to give serious thought to the long-term social and health costs of what is being done to fight the short-term health costs of the Corona virus. After all, it would be a non-sequitur to assume that someone's conclusions are untrue just because they are based on false premises or invalid arguments.

I mean, like everyone else, I hate giving serious consideration to views and people I generally rate between distasteful and despicable, but sometimes it's necessary.


Chris S
Michele Fauble
 

Mervyn Henderson  Identity Verified
España
Local time: 18:32
Miembro
español al inglés
+ ...
PERSONA QUE INICIÓ LA HEBRA
Deaths up again May 7

Can't go into mutations, because I don't understand those things.

But I'm really not sure what to make of it here. First deaths were going down, then they went up a little, then they went down, down, down, now they're up again. 200 and something yesterday, when it was sitting at 165 or thereabouts before. Not that I'm expecting people to continue to not die in the same proportions, but - I know I harp on about it, and I'm as browned off as everyone else with confinement - I can't he
... See more
Can't go into mutations, because I don't understand those things.

But I'm really not sure what to make of it here. First deaths were going down, then they went up a little, then they went down, down, down, now they're up again. 200 and something yesterday, when it was sitting at 165 or thereabouts before. Not that I'm expecting people to continue to not die in the same proportions, but - I know I harp on about it, and I'm as browned off as everyone else with confinement - I can't help feeling there's a connection between this and the surge on to the streets in the last few days. I keep thinking about hairdressing salons in particular, maybe erroneously, so feel free to correct me, but I feel they're dangerous. A lot of dyeing and drying can lead to a lot of dying.

[Edited at 2020-05-07 11:11 GMT]
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Jennifer Forbes
expressisverbis
 

Michael Wetzel  Identity Verified
Alemania
Local time: 18:32
alemán al inglés
What's to understand? May 7

Come on, this is the Internet. If any of us understood what we were talking about, we would have better things to do.

And, anyway, a special fact-holiday and open-speculation season has been declared for the next few weeks regarding the impact of the easing of isolation efforts, because there is a lag of several weeks between any changes in policy and the results they produce in the effects of the disease. Knock yourself out.

And, personally, talking big here helps me t
... See more
Come on, this is the Internet. If any of us understood what we were talking about, we would have better things to do.

And, anyway, a special fact-holiday and open-speculation season has been declared for the next few weeks regarding the impact of the easing of isolation efforts, because there is a lag of several weeks between any changes in policy and the results they produce in the effects of the disease. Knock yourself out.

And, personally, talking big here helps me to act like a sheep in my everyday life, which is exactly the way it should be: Shooting my mouth off where it is unlikely to have consequences - and, where it is likely to have consequences, doing exactly what the people who might actually know what they are talking about tell me to do.
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Mervyn Henderson
Chris S
expressisverbis
Michele Fauble
Beatriz Ramírez de Haro
 

Mervyn Henderson  Identity Verified
España
Local time: 18:32
Miembro
español al inglés
+ ...
PERSONA QUE INICIÓ LA HEBRA
Lag May 7

Good one Michael! But the lag is what bothers me. Say it has a huge effect, but we won't know for a few weeks, then suddenly the corpses start piling up again, it's back to square one.

Yes, everyone's an expert. I see that all you need is a bookcase behind you, even if the books are Goldilocks and the Three Bears, Viz annuals and old Beano collections, because nobody will be seeing them close up, just start talking on TV or social media, and all the rest of them sit up and take noti
... See more
Good one Michael! But the lag is what bothers me. Say it has a huge effect, but we won't know for a few weeks, then suddenly the corpses start piling up again, it's back to square one.

Yes, everyone's an expert. I see that all you need is a bookcase behind you, even if the books are Goldilocks and the Three Bears, Viz annuals and old Beano collections, because nobody will be seeing them close up, just start talking on TV or social media, and all the rest of them sit up and take notice and start smartening up their own bookcases for next time.
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Beatriz Ramírez de Haro
 

Brian Joyce  Identity Verified
Reino Unido
francés al inglés
Free at last May 7

Free at last, free at last good god almighty I am free at last!

Mondays the day everyone, when the PM unlocks the gate and starts telling everybody "off your arse and back to work, you've all gotta pay for this now". Funny how it the same in France, funny how the death tolls are similar in certain countries but different in other. Why did the Germans get off so lightly? Why is there so much synchronicity to it all?
All conspiracy theories welcome.


 

Mervyn Henderson  Identity Verified
España
Local time: 18:32
Miembro
español al inglés
+ ...
PERSONA QUE INICIÓ LA HEBRA
Friday 8 May May 8

I'm certainly dragging my feet on this diary, but then again I think I've only missed a couple of days, and I was beginning to get repetitive anyway. Deaths up in the 200s again, as far as I remember, but I've stopped looking. Everyone's beginning to moan at everyone else over here, so I'm doing my bit with some moaning of my own, albeit passively.

Still, it's good to know the moaning, like the pandemic, is much the same everywhere. I've been reading about the UK's Professor Lockdow
... See more
I'm certainly dragging my feet on this diary, but then again I think I've only missed a couple of days, and I was beginning to get repetitive anyway. Deaths up in the 200s again, as far as I remember, but I've stopped looking. Everyone's beginning to moan at everyone else over here, so I'm doing my bit with some moaning of my own, albeit passively.

Still, it's good to know the moaning, like the pandemic, is much the same everywhere. I've been reading about the UK's Professor Lockdown-turned-Professor Pantsdown. With which, courtesy of the Daily Mirror, with, I'd say, an equal proportion of bad puns/good puns (I liked the last eleven words):

+++
Lockdown lothario Professor Neil Ferguson survived the respiratory infection that's spread across the globe, and then caught a bug that's caused far more trouble in human history than any boring old plague.
He decided to rewrite the official government guidance he had urged the rest of us to follow, and opted to stay home, break the rules, and get laid.
He and married lover Antonia Staats got fed up with being two meeters apart, and hooked up twice in two weeks. Ms Staats, who is married to a data scientist, was presumably hoping to benefit from nerd immunity.
He was not anti her body, expressed a preference for the German-born model, and it's probably safe to assume he flattened her curves as she helped him past the peak.
+++

Here too, the Basque Health Service's Director of Emergencies also got caught, but in reverse, i.e. he wasn't the host, but nipped off across to Castro in Cantabria (where half the properties are second homes, mostly owned by Basques) with a woman. They just say that, "woman", so it probably was his wife, but you know how tongues wag. I mean gossip, by the way ...

His explanation was that he feared infecting the elderly people in his house in Bilbao. Hmm, yeah, right, Jon (his name actually is Jon). Well, what would YOU rather do, spend the weekend in a seaside resort with a woman and a few bottles of wine and chorizo, or spend it attending to the wrinklies at home when you spend most of your time attending to the whole shebang of them at the hospitals?

And at this point I'd just like to stress categorically that there were absolutely no reports that he was found handcuffed to a bed in a latex suit and a mask with dozens of sex toys and videos strewn around the room, and that the mysterious woman was all dressed up in a black leather dominatrix outfit, with an assortment of whips to choose from. But you know how people talk.

He resigned when the news broke. Trouble is, that was only a few days ago, and the local people reported him way back in April, but the report seems to have got, er, mislaid somewhere down the line. He might have known he'd be rumbled, though, because the people in Castro aren't happy about Basques hopping over to swell the population and possibly infect them, despite the road controls (he apparently travelled under cover of darkness), and several other surprise visitors had been reported by local people as usually non-resident in the town. None of them were reported as bondage fanatics, though. As far as we know. I'll look into it, because you know how these things get exaggerated by scoundrels with no scruples. I'll take some photos. Videos, perhaps. Maybe even a live feed. With masks - well, these days, that's obvious ...


[Edited at 2020-05-08 11:22 GMT]

[Edited at 2020-05-08 11:38 GMT]

[Edited at 2020-05-08 12:31 GMT]
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expressisverbis
Chris S
 

expressisverbis
Portugal
Local time: 17:32
Miembro 2015
inglés al portugués
+ ...
More infections, less deaths May 8

Mervyn Henderson wrote:

Deaths up in the 200s again, as far as I remember, but I've stopped looking.


And here, infected patients are rising more and more, and deaths per day are being gradually reduced during this week.
This seems to be the result of the reopening of various activities.
If we fail to keep control of ourselves during this "new normality period", we might go back into lockdown.


 

Mervyn Henderson  Identity Verified
España
Local time: 18:32
Miembro
español al inglés
+ ...
PERSONA QUE INICIÓ LA HEBRA
Monday 11 May May 11

And they’re off! Leading the pack are the hairdressers, haberdasheries and hardware stores, by prior appointment only, please, forming an orderly queue along the pavement, observing a mandatory interperson distance of two metres, gloves and masks recommended, no touching up or rubbing or caressing other people or oneself, even parts of the anatomy you would normally be allowed to touch up or rub or caress in public, and only elbow-coughing and shoulder-sneezing, please. Close behind are the la... See more
And they’re off! Leading the pack are the hairdressers, haberdasheries and hardware stores, by prior appointment only, please, forming an orderly queue along the pavement, observing a mandatory interperson distance of two metres, gloves and masks recommended, no touching up or rubbing or caressing other people or oneself, even parts of the anatomy you would normally be allowed to touch up or rub or caress in public, and only elbow-coughing and shoulder-sneezing, please. Close behind are the larger retail premises, at least 400 square metres to half the usual capacity, forming an orderly queue along the pavement, gloves and masks and all the rest. And coming up fast on the outside as of today, bars and restaurants, but only on the pavement terrace, half the usual capacity, screens, gloves and masks and all the rest.

Only a matter of time before the bars and restaurants simply double their terrace space on the pavements to compensate, so what with that, and queues for the rest of the places all stretching right around the block, pavements are rapidly becoming a thing of the past. On the other hand, they’re going to pedestrianise quite a few streets in Bilbao to give us more space in order to make space between each other. Still not up for joining in myself. Might take a look later, and might just check a couple of March lottery tickets (the lotteries were cancelled here, even online), just in case I’ve won a few million. But at a spacious lottery office, and joining an orderly queue along the pavement, observing a mandatory interperson distance of two metres, gloves and masks recommended, no touching up, no old-style coughing etc. etc.

143 deaths in Spain yesterday, and 169 the day before. Didn’t post at the weekend because my fedupness with the diary took a turn for the worst, and I pulled a calf muscle out running too, blast. Someone was kind enough to remind me, though, that I never promised to post on this every day, did I, and it’s been almost two months, so hey.
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expressisverbis
 
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