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Jason Ma  Identity Verified
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从以往发生在世界各地的大地震看 May 14, 2008

地震预测是一个非常深奥的科学。据我所知,确切的预报历史上没有过(如有实例,请纠正我的说法)。民间经验、预兆水分很大。
不过我认同Angus和PK的思路,那就是人为的因素应该降至最低。此次地震会在建筑设计,地震自救知识的普及,预警水平的提升等诸多方面对以后的工作提出更高的要求。
此次灾难,总理带头深入一线,官兵、相关人员奋力抢救,有目共睹。但'刺耳'的批评会惠及未来此类事件中受灾民众。
眼下我们的当务之急是个尽所能,出一份力。


Angus Woo wrote:

http://www.mingpaonews.com/20080513/gah1.htm

蟾蜍大遷徙 官方漠視預兆
專家討論區準確預測地震

現在只能先救災, 再追究是否涉及人為失誤.

[Edited at 2008-05-13 07:54]



PK wrote:
有沒有發出預先警告?在地震帶為何樓房建這麼高?建築物是否用防震設計?


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isahuang
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马兄,上中文论坛有问题没? May 14, 2008


Jason Ma wrote:

地震预测是一个非常深奥的科学。据我所知,确切的预报历史上没有过(如有实例,请纠正我的说法)。民间经验、预兆水分很大。
不过我认同Angus和PK的思路,那就是人为的因素应该降至最低。此次地震会在建筑设计,地震自救知识的普及,预警水平的提升等诸多方面对以后的工作提出更高的要求。
此次灾难,总理带头深入一线,官兵、相关人员奋力抢救,有目共睹。但'刺耳'的批评会惠及未来此类事件中受灾民众。
眼下我们的当务之急是个尽所能,出一份力。


Angus Woo wrote:

http://www.mingpaonews.com/20080513/gah1.htm

蟾蜍大遷徙 官方漠視預兆
專家討論區準確預測地震

現在只能先救災, 再追究是否涉及人為失誤.

[Edited at 2008-05-13 07:54]



PK wrote:
有沒有發出預先警告?在地震帶為何樓房建這麼高?建築物是否用防震設計?


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lbone  Identity Verified
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现在已经解禁了 May 14, 2008

不知道当时是什么原因。

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lbone  Identity Verified
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成功预报的例子 May 14, 2008


Jason Ma wrote:
地震预测是一个非常深奥的科学。据我所知,确切的预报历史上没有过(如有实例,请纠正我的说法)。民间经验、预兆水分很大。


举两个例子:
1)1975年,辽宁海城7.3级地震,地震发生在人口稠密、工业发达的地区。该地震成功预报。伤亡人员总数为29579人,占总人口的0.32%,其中死亡2041人,占总人口的0.02%。伤亡人员多为老 、弱、病、残、儿童和不听指挥的人。从比例看,这是一个成功的例子。
参考:
http://www.baidu.com/s?ie=gb2312&bs=1975%20%20Ԥ&sr=&z=&cl=3&f=8&tn=baidu&wd=1975%20%20Ԥ%207.3&ct=0

2)1976年,唐山大地震,无人预报(中国地震局发现了迹象,派6人去调查,但这6个未及时报告,自己也牺牲了),但相隔不远的青龙县准确进行了预报,并及时疏散,青龙县房屋倒塌18万间,人员伤亡0。很不 幸,这本来是个正面例子,但太伤某些人了,很少有媒体愿意正面报导。
参考:
http://www.baidu.com/s?ie=gb2312&bs=ɽ%2018&sr=&z=&cl=3&f=8&tn=baidu&wd=ɽ%2018%20&ct=0

今年:
记得新浪上登过来自中国地震局写的一篇消息,说阿坝州地震局5月12日之前相当长时间没上报地震相关数据了。不过这个帖子我一时找不到了。

[Edited at 2008-05-14 16:52]


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isahuang
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那就好 May 14, 2008


lbone wrote:

不知道当时是什么原因。


如果真给封了,那可太令我失望了.


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pkchan  Identity Verified
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我無法飛身趕赴現場, 只有談這些。 May 14, 2008

康吳地產康先生0930-099619吳小姐0921-372790:防震結構設計良好鋼筋鋼 ...- [ Translate this page ]Aug 3, 2007 ... 田堯彰說,建築物的防震設計分三種包括隔震、耐震及減震,三者之間仍有差異,但目的都是為了抗震。所謂隔震,就是將建築物與地盤隔離,當地震發生時, ...
blog.roodo.com/yes168/archives/3859445.html - 38k - Cached - Similar pages

建築防震減少對建築物的危害邯鄲房產邯鄲在線房產頻道- 簡 - [ 轉為繁體網頁 - Translate this page ]中國《工業與民用建築抗震設計規範》(TJ11―78)的修訂本(以下簡稱《規範》),適用於設防烈度為6~10度地區的防震設計。《規範》規定:建築物的設防烈度,一般按基本 ...
fangchan.hdol.cn/viewpaper.asp?id=4956 - 26k - Cached - Similar pages

他山之石--水庫的故事- [ Translate this page ]這則防震成功的故事僅以水壩為例,但其他重要的建築物-----如核能發電廠,橋樑及醫院-----也逐漸依照較好的防震設計來建造,以便將來能承受更大地震的考驗。 ...
921.yam.com/experience/dam.html - 11k - Cached - Similar pages

高層建築的抗震防震設計- 簡 - [ 轉為繁體網頁 - Translate this page ]高層建築的抗震防震設計 2008-5-13 14:49. 高新建建築物的抗震性能必須把好抗震設計和施工兩道關。抗震設計必須按照抗震設防要求和抗震設計規范進行。 ...
www.jianshe99.com/html/2008/5/xu054513054131580027409.html - 9k - Cached - Similar pages


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lbone  Identity Verified
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成功预报的例子 May 14, 2008


Jason Ma wrote:
地震预测是一个非常深奥的科学。据我所知,确切的预报历史上没有过(如有实例,请纠正我的说法)。民间经验、预兆水分很大。
[/quote]

举两个例子:
1)1975年,辽宁海城7.3级地震,地震发生在人口稠密、工业发达。该地震成功预报。伤亡人员总数为29579人,占总人口的0.32%,其中死亡2041人,占总人口的0.02%。伤亡人员多为老、弱、 病、残、儿童和不听指挥的人。从比例看,这是一个成功的例子。
参考:
http://www.baidu.com/s?ie=gb2312&bs=1975%20%20Ԥ&sr=&z=&cl=3&f=8&tn=baidu&wd=1975%20%20Ԥ%207.3&ct=0
2)1976年,唐山大地震,无人预报(中国地震局发现了迹象,派6人去调查,但这6个未及时报告,自己也牺牲了),但相隔不远的青龙县准确进行了预报,并及时疏散,青龙县房屋倒塌18万间,人员伤亡0。很不 幸,这本来是个例子,但太伤某些人了,很少有媒体愿意正面报导。
参考:
http://www.baidu.com/s?ie=gb2312&bs=ɽ%2018&sr=&z=&cl=3&f=8&tn=baidu&wd=ɽ%2018%20&ct=0

今年:
记得新浪上登过来自中国地震局写的一片消息,说阿坝州地震局5月12日之前相当长时间没上报地震相关数据了。不过这个帖子我一时找不到了。


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redred  Identity Verified
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不是吧 May 15, 2008


lbone wrote:
功夫网升级,ProZ中文论坛被定点封锁

大陆用户现在不能访问中文论坛,不能查看中文论坛上的文章。

不过ProZ上的其它模块不受影响。

我属于城墙拐弯那种,可以挤过城墙勉强看几眼。

[Edited at 2008-05-14 14:22]


不是吧,我看得好好,贡献爱心的谈话内容是不会“锁”。“功夫”指法XX的衍生意思,有点隐晦?不提也罢,不明内情的人,还误会你是信徒呢。


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Jason Ma  Identity Verified
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上中文论坛没有问题 May 15, 2008

Ibone你那是不是网路故障?

isahuang wrote:

马兄,上中文论坛有问题没?




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lbone  Identity Verified
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应该没有故障 May 15, 2008


Jason Ma wrote:

Ibone你那是不是网路故障?

isahuang wrote:

马兄,上中文论坛有问题没?



当时,我通过代理可以进中文论坛。去了代理立即断。但其它模块不用代理都可以进。不过时间不长,也就1-2小时。


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lbone  Identity Verified
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升级 May 15, 2008


redred wrote:


lbone wrote:
功夫网升级,ProZ中文论坛被定点封锁

大陆用户现在不能访问中文论坛,不能查看中文论坛上的文章。

不过ProZ上的其它模块不受影响。

我属于城墙拐弯那种,可以挤过城墙勉强看几眼。

[Edited at 2008-05-14 14:22]


不是吧,我看得好好,贡献爱心的谈话内容是不会“锁”。“功夫”指法XX的衍生意思,有点隐晦?不提也罢,不明内情的人,还误会你是信徒呢。


我觉得现在有定点功能,所以说升级了。以前都是只封整体网站,一封就是几分钟。现在wiki也只封中文,英文网页都可以自由浏览。看样子纳税人的钱没白交,我们的自由度在一点一点提升。

比如,现在我看你这个帖子没问题,但想回你这个帖就必须走代理,否则就断了。我已经试了不下5次。别人情况我不能肯定,我这儿肯定是这样。

关于功夫网:
http://www.baidu.com/s?ie=gb2312&bs=""&sr=&z=&cl=3&f=8&tn=baidu&wd=""%20"ǽ"&ct=0


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Mincho Young  Identity Verified
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换了个浏览器就好了 May 15, 2008


lbone wrote:
大陆用户现在不能访问中文论坛,不能查看中文论坛上的文章。
不过ProZ上的其它模块不受影响。
我属于城墙拐弯那种,可以挤过城墙勉强看几眼。

[Edited at 2008-05-14 14:22]

我这边城墙不用倒拐。刚想回个帖子,没想到也发生了你说的那种情况,点了“post reply” 半天没有反应。将傲游换成windows最新版本的浏览器后,可以了。不知是不是浏览器的问题,也有可能是巧合吧。如果真的需要城墙倒拐的话,我也还是要倒的

[Edited at 2008-05-15 06:18]


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wherestip  Identity Verified
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Life and Death May 17, 2008

... and facing adversity

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/everest/david/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2008/05/08/DI2008050802853.html

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/everest/etc/links.html


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wherestip  Identity Verified
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From the 1st link immediately above May 17, 2008




Some say people test themselves in extreme situations to learn about themselves. Have you found this to be true? Is there that attraction for you as well -- testing yourself? Are you ever afraid of what you will find out?


What I have found to be true is how hard it is to know why people do the things they do. But what I do know is that the climbers found themselves in conditions causing extreme duress on the night of May 10, 1996; they were profoundly sleep-deprived, oxygen-starved and dehydrated while staggering around in the dark in a blizzard. In these conditions people are stripped of their ability to be anything but their true selves, and that is one of the undercurrents in the film. You find out if you're a person who gives help, asks for help, or just gives up and lies down to die.

I have always thrived on the tremendous challenges of filming at extreme altitude, and many times have found myself in rather difficult and trying situations. In those particular moments, sometimes I found out things I liked about myself and sometimes things I did not. But that is not what draws me to high mountains. For me, it is the idea of the rewards that come with preparing oneself over a long period of time to face great risks, challenges and hardship.





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Jason Ma  Identity Verified
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A story I heard years ago might be related to such situations May 17, 2008

Steve, you might have read the story of those football players who survived an aircrash in the Andes. They were forced to survive on the bodies of perished team-mates , yet in the years to come, it was extremely difficult for them to survive their own stories, even though the Pop forgave them.


wherestip wrote:




Some say people test themselves in extreme situations to learn about themselves. Have you found this to be true? Is there that attraction for you as well -- testing yourself? Are you ever afraid of what you will find out?


What I have found to be true is how hard it is to know why people do the things they do. But what I do know is that the climbers found themselves in conditions causing extreme duress on the night of May 10, 1996; they were profoundly sleep-deprived, oxygen-starved and dehydrated while staggering around in the dark in a blizzard. In these conditions people are stripped of their ability to be anything but their true selves, and that is one of the undercurrents in the film. You find out if you're a person who gives help, asks for help, or just gives up and lies down to die.

I have always thrived on the tremendous challenges of filming at extreme altitude, and many times have found myself in rather difficult and trying situations. In those particular moments, sometimes I found out things I liked about myself and sometimes things I did not. But that is not what draws me to high mountains. For me, it is the idea of the rewards that come with preparing oneself over a long period of time to face great risks, challenges and hardship.







[Edited at 2008-05-17 15:25]


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